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Hurricane Irma – Exposure Mapping, we pray we are so wrong


A New York Times report breaks down what's at stake:

"The last time a Category 5 hurricane ripped through Florida, it was so destructive that meteorologists retired its name forever. That storm, Hurricane Andrew, made landfall southwest of Miami in 1992, killing 65 people, destroying 63,000 homes and inflicting $26.5 billion in economic losses. But if a similar-sized hurricane were to strike Florida today in the same spot, it would be far more catastrophic — causing up to $100 billion in damage, according to a recent analysis by Swiss Re, the reinsurance firm. That’s even after accounting for the fact that South Florida has strengthened its building codes since Andrew. The reason is simple: Central and South Florida have grown at a breathtaking pace since 1990, adding more than 6 million people. Glittering high-rises and condominiums keep sprouting up along Miami Beach and other coastal areas. A lot more valuable property now sits in harm’s way."

“Swiss Re estimates that a storm like the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926 would inflict more than $200 billion in damage today if it struck Miami and Miami Beach directly — exceeding the $160 billion in damage caused by Hurricane Katrina in 2005, adjusted for inflation. (Officials are still calculating the cost of Hurricane Harvey to Texas, but estimates today range as high as $180 billion.) Nearly $80 billion of those potential losses in Florida would not be covered by insurance, the Swiss Re report said, which would “undoubtedly” affect South Florida’s economic growth “over several years, hindering its capability to recover.”

Source: Why Hurricane Irma Could Hurt, a Lot: Much Lies in Harm’s Way by Brad Plumer, NY Times Sept 7, 2017

Webbs Hill is providing:

  • Hurricane Irma exposure mapping for all:

  • Non-Agency RMBS Deals

  • Non-Agency RMBS Deal Groups

  • STACR & CAS Deals

  • Mapping of every Florida zip code including: City, County, CBSA, MSA, Region (South, Central, Northeast, Northwest), and a Storm Surge flag.

We will surely revise this analysis as FEMA makes their Major Disaster declarations. Unfortunately, we may have to add Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina.

Storm Surge

Our Irma zip code listing includes a flag for those zip codes in the Storm Surge Watch/Warning areas. The mapping is our best guess as to which zip codes are included in the red/purple areas on the map. We can guarantee that this mapping will be outdated by the time we publish. Our Storm Surge mapping will be somewhat inaccurate for STACR/CAS, as those deals only supply a 3 digit zip code.

“Along the coast, storm surge is often the greatest threat to life and property from a hurricane. In the past, large death tolls have resulted from the rise of the ocean associated with many of the major hurricanes that have made landfall. Hurricane Katrina (2005) is a prime example of the damage and devastation that can be caused by surge. At least 1500 persons lost their lives during Katrina and many of those deaths occurred directly, or indirectly, as a result of storm surge.”

Source: National Hurricane Center: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/

67 Florida Counties – Irma Exposure by Region

Webbs Hill drew 4 lines and separated the 67 counties into 4 regions. Our mapping shows the exposure for each of these four regions.

67 Florida Counties – Regions

DEAL EXPOSURE: KATRINA vs. HARVEY vs. IRMA​

DEALS MOST EXPOSED TO IRMA STORM SURGE

DEALS MOST EXPOSED TO IRMA SOUTH FLORIDA

DEALS MOST EXPOSED TO IRMA SOUTH & CENTRAL FLORIDA

Contact us at 203-276-0672 to become a client and access all reports and attachments.

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